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Many times, I have described Muhammadu Buhari, the man who
will face Jonathan in 2015, as a "perennially-losing presidential
candidate".
In 2003 he emerged as the sole candidate of the All Peoples
Party (APP), after two candidates Rochas Okorocha and Harry Akande were
pressured into stepping down, while Yahaya Abubakar failed to show up on the
date of the primary. In the elections, Buhari lost to then incumbent, Olusegun
Obasanjo of the PDP.
In 2007, he was consensus candidate of the All Nigeria
Peoples Party (ANPP) after Bukar Ibrahim and Pere Ajunwa were made to back down
on convention day. Buhari then lost to PDP's Umaru Musa Yar'Adua.
In 2011, he contested the elections on the platform of the
Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), which he formed, losing again, to
Goodluck Jonathan. In all three cases, his emergence was without intra-party
opposition.
But I am first to admit that Buhari's story has changed. By
contesting and winning the presidential primary of the All Progressive Congress
(APC) - the first time his presidential ambition has been challenged - Buhari
has recorded the most important victory of his political career. And if the
2015 election is free and fair, he could well better that record.
Why Buhari may win
Buhari remains the single most popular man in northern
Nigeria. Despite lacking real party structure, Buhari, with CPC in 2011,
defeated Jonathan in Yobe, Zamfara, Sokoto, Niger, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano,
Kaduna, Gombe and Jigawa. He single-handedly polled a total of 12,214,853
votes, which amounted to 54.3 percent of Jonathan's tally. Riding on the back
of APC's nationwide structure backed by 14 governors and their war chest, a
Buhari victory in 2015 is quite possible.
Buhari is popular outside the north as well. Four days after
he created his Twitter account (@ThisIsBuhari), he had already amassed 45,000
followers. This is testament to Buhari's growing national - not just northern -
acceptability, because the north remains Nigeria's least literate zone. The
north, therefore, has a sparse population of Internet users, which means that
Buhari's crowd of Twitter followers probably come from across the country.
In truth, Buhari cannot take full credit for his popularity
outside the north. Full marks should go to Goodluck Jonathan, the man who has
unravelled as the antithesis of his opponent's unique selling point.
Presidential spokesman Reuben Abati can deliver the
floweriest prose about his boss's aversion to corruption while his colleague
Doyin Okupe hurls the foulest words at the opposition and other Nigerians daily
puncturing the president's professed incorruptibility. But the majority of
Nigerians have come to accept that Jonathan, even if re-elected for 10 terms,
will never fight corruption. The courage is lacking, the political will is
nonexistent, the desperation for re-election is so consuming that he would not
hurt the weakest of his corrupt political allies. So Nigerians are prepared to
turn to Buhari, unarguably the least stained presidential aspirant in the eyes
of the people.
When APC was formed in February 2013, senior PDP figures
dismissed it as a failure-bound union of four parties. Who would blame them?
Many were skeptical that this merger would not survive even a year. Yet, in
another two months, this merger would be two years old. But that is not the
story.
The story is that all APC presidential aspirants defeated by
Buhari have offered him their support. Few expected it. Atiku Abubakar, the man
most expected to bolt out of APC in the event of a loss, congratulated Buhari
the moment the ex-general's vote count overtook his, even though the winner had
not yet been officially announced at the time. There is a massive movement for
Buhari, which Jonathan didn't face in 2011.
Negative perceptions
That Buhari stands a good chance of winning does not mean he
is not facing challenges. Nigerians, though forgetful, are largely an
unforgiving lot. Their memories only need to be reignited by reminders of an
individual's past indiscretions.
That was what Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka did, first in
2007; and his thoughts have been massively re-circulated since Buhari's
emergence as the APC candidate. The unjust execution of Lawal Ojuolape, Bernard
Ogedengbe and Bartholomew Owoh, through a retroactive decree, will haunt Buhari
ahead of February.
There is nothing Muhammadu Buhai can do - and he himself
knows - to extricate himself from his perception as a religious bigot. For the
second time running, he has chosen a pastor as his running mate. But even if he
chooses a pope, there are Nigerians who won't pick Buhari for fear of
enthroning a religiously extreme president.
In 2011, Buhari was accused of inciting the violence that
followed his loss to Jonathan. The following year, he said "the dog and
the baboon would all be soaked in blood" should the 2015 election be
rigged. Buhari has shed blood before for his presidential ambition, some people
believe. And they think he would do it again. Such man, they reason, should
never taste power.
And there are those who would never vote for a 72-year-old.
How can APC be trumpeting change while fielding a man who was military
president more than three decades ago? That's no change; it's recycling.
The candidature of a septuagenarian is a dent on whatever
progress we think we have made as a democracy. And although there have been
arguments on the immorality of voting for either Buhari or Jonathan, Nigeria
badly needs the "recycled freshness" that voting Jonathan out would
herald!
Fisayo Soyombo edits Nigerian online newspaper TheCable.
Source: Al Jazeera
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