Opinion: Preliminary Arithmetics Of The Akwa Ibom Guber Judgement, By Stephen Leemene Deegbara

By Stephen Leemene Deegbara

Let me start by saying that nothing here has the stamp of infallibility, as there may yet be facts not known to me. In that case, I would reasonably expect that friends on this page should fill in the gap where necessary, if missing facts are within the grasps of their knowledge. On that note, I proceed with the preliminary arithmetic of the Akwa Ibom Governoship Tribunal verdict.

INEC, on the 11th of April, 2015, declared Udom's PDP winner of the gubernatorial election in Akwa Ibom with a total of 996, 071 votes in his favour. His nearest rival, the popular Umana of the APC, was said to have polled 89, 865 votes.
The tribunal today ruled that of the 996,071 which INEC credited to Odum's PDP, 566,436 voters in 18 of Akwa Ibom's 31 LGAs were disenfranchised as there was no evidence of valid accreditation. The tribunal accordingly ordered a rerun in the affected 18 LGAs. The LGAs are: 1. Onna 2. Uyo 3. Ibesikpo 4. Nsit ubium 5. Nsit Atai 6. Uruan 7. Nsit ibom 8. Itu 9. Ibiono ibom 10. Eket 11. Ikot Abasi 12. Udung UKO 13. Etinan 14. Ini 15. Ibeno 16. Etim EKPO 17. Oruk anam 18. Ikono
Out of the remaining 13LGAs, APC had won in 4 LGAs, namely: 1. Mbo 2. Udung Uko 3. Okobo 4. Urue Offong Uruko
Now, pick your calculator and let's do the maths. 996, 071 minus 566, 436=340,635. That means, according to the verdict of the tribunal, Odum's PDP still have 340, 635 valid votes standing to their credit.
Information as to whether or not the number of votes credited to Umana's APC by INEC was tampered with is yet not given. So let's assume that the 89, 865 votes of Umana remains intact. Again, let's do the maths.
Pick up your calculator and don't forget the number of valid votes standing in favour of Odum's PDP. So we roll like this: 340,635-89,865=250,770.
Now, if Odum's PDP and Umana's APC fail to appeal the verdict of the tribunal within the time permitted by law( something that is very unlikely) and rerun election is held in the affected 18 LGAs as ordered, it follows that from the word go , Odum will have 250,770 in his favour ab initio.
Whether that advantage is sufficient or not depends on the total number of registered voters in the affected LGA. As of this moment, that information is not readily available. But sources say that the affected area covers the stronghold of Umana's APC, which implies that after all, Udom's lead may not be unassailable. He may still lose the poll if APC performs well.
According to INEC, there is a total of 1,548,531 registered voters in the 31 LGAs of AKWA Ibom State.
Another Angle To The Judgment
Should the tribunal have outrightly nullified the Akwa Ibom guber election instead of keeping some valid votes in favour of Udom and merely ordering a rerun in 18 LGAs?
I want to answer in the affirmative. The evidence before the tribunal was strong enough for the election in the entire 31 LGAs to be nullified, but somehow, the tribunal didn't follow that route.
To be validly elected as governor of a state, the law demands that a candidate should poll majority of votes in at least 2/3 majority of the LGAs of that state.
What is the 2/3 of 31? It is 20.6! So, in effect, why should there not be outright nullification when PDP's Udom did not secure victory at least 20 states?
I am tempted to say that in the eye of the law, he is not a Governor as things stand!
APC has more than a fair chance in Akwa Ibom. please you can share!
Mr. Deegbara Writes from Port Harcourt